Supercomputer Predicts 2024/25 Premier League Title Race with Liverpool Eight Points Clear
Although November still lingers on the calendar, with the festive fixture rush yet to commence and the yellow ball securely stored away, the Premier League title race might already be over.
Liverpool’s 3-2 triumph over Southampton on Sunday, combined with Manchester City’s unexpected 4-0 loss to Tottenham Hotspur the day before, created an eight-point gap at the top of the Premier League table.
This is a stark contrast to the same stage last season when eight points separated the top seven teams after 12 matches.
Arne Slot remains cautious despite the current standings. The Dutch manager was quick to highlight that Arsenal had an eight-point advantage over Manchester City as late as April 2023 but still ended the season in second place.
However, how does Opta’s supercomputer assess Liverpool’s chances of claiming the title this time around?
A prediction for the final Premier League table has been generated by using a blend of betting market odds and Opta’s in-house power ranking system.
The statistics provider simulates every remaining fixture 10,000 times, and in 76% of those simulations, Liverpool emerge as the Premier League champions.
At the start of the season, Liverpool were ranked as the third favourite, significantly behind defending champions Manchester City and back-to-back runners-up Arsenal.
However, a troubling stretch of five consecutive losses—including three in the Premier League—has dropped Pep Guardiola’s team to a mere 15.4% chance of claiming a fifth consecutive title.
The nature of City’s recent defeats to teams like Bournemouth, Sporting CP, Brighton, and Tottenham (twice) has caused a considerable decline in their statistical ranking.
Following their disappointing loss to Spurs on Saturday, it was the first time in 624 days that City was not ranked as the best club side in the world by Opta.
Arsenal, on the other hand, broke free from their slump with a dominant 5-0 win over Nottingham Forest at the Emirates Stadium on Saturday, regaining some of their earlier form. The Gunners now sit just one point behind City, but their chances of winning the title are only half as likely, at 7.7%.
Chelsea, with an identical record to Arsenal, also started the weekend with a strong performance, cruising to a comfortable win over Leicester City. The victory has boosted their slim hopes of an unexpected Premier League title challenge.
Tottenham, Newcastle, and the surprise performers Brighton are the only other clubs with a non-zero chance of finishing at the top of the table. Brighton’s 2-1 victory over Bournemouth on Saturday kept them level on points with Arsenal and Chelsea, marking the club’s best-ever start to a top-flight season.
Brighton fans were in full voice, singing about a potential return to European football. However, manager Fabian Hurzeler remains focused, dismissing the chants. “I don’t listen, so they can sing what they want,” he said.
If Brighton continue their impressive form, their fans might soon be dreaming of even bigger achievements than a return to the Champions League.
| Rank | Team | Probability of winning the Premier League |
|---|---|---|
| 1. | Liverpool | 76.0% |
| 2. | Man City | 15.4% |
| 3. | Arsenal | 7.7% |
| 4. | Chelsea | 0.6% |
| 5= | Tottenham | 0.1% |
| 5= | Brighton | 0.1% |
| 5= | Newcastle | 0.1% |
In other news, Man City Suffer Fresh Injury Nightmare Blow Ahead of Premier League Clash with Liverpool
