Stats That Shows Liverpool Can Beat Man City and Arsenal to PL Title Win This Season

Liverpool’s title challenge this season isn’t just reflected in their position at the top of the Premier League table.

With a 1-0 victory over Crystal Palace on Saturday, the Reds maintained their place at the summit during the international break. Diogo Jota’s early strike ensured Arne Slot’s impressive start as manager continued, keeping Liverpool ahead.

Arne Slot has now secured six wins from his first seven top-flight matches in charge. The only blemish came in a 1-0 defeat at home to Nottingham Forest last month.

This result leaves Liverpool sitting at the top of the table with 18 points, one point clear of reigning champions Manchester City and Arsenal.

However, the Merseyside club are also leading in another significant area. According to The Athletic, Liverpool are the only Premier League team to consistently have a positive xG difference in every match they’ve played during the 2024/25 season.

Expected goals, or xG, is a statistic used to measure the quality of a scoring chance by estimating the likelihood that a shot will result in a goal. The calculation is based on various factors before a shot is taken.

Manchester City, on the other hand, have only outperformed their xG in four out of seven games, which is the same as Arsenal. Surprisingly, Fulham have been Liverpool’s closest challenger in this regard, producing a favourable xG in six of their matches, including a positive result against City.

Leicester City, however, have struggled in this metric. Despite securing their first Premier League win of the season against Bournemouth on Saturday under Steve Cooper, Leicester have had a negative xG in all of their games.

Although both Slot and Liverpool supporters understand it’s still too early to predict a title victory, the xG table offers some promising insights.

This is especially notable as the former Feyenoord manager is outperforming Pep Guardiola and Mikel Arteta, both of whom have significantly more Premier League experience.

Liverpool will face a significant challenge after the international break. Their next Premier League fixture is a home match against Chelsea on October 20, followed by a trip to Arsenal.

In November, they will take on in-form teams such as Brighton, Aston Villa, Southampton, and Manchester City. Additionally, they have Champions League matches scheduled against Bayer Leverkusen and Real Madrid.

To add to the pressure, goalkeeper Alisson is expected to be unavailable for this entire period after suffering an injury at Selhurst Park.

Slot may also be mindful of the fact that Liverpool finished the 2023/24 season at the top of the expected goals (xG) table.

However, this was not mirrored in their final league position, as they ended the season nine points off the top, despite leading the league with just eight games remaining.

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